Top Stories

  1. EHPA (28 Sep) counted about 1,163,000 residential heat pumps sold in 12 European countries in H1 2026, up 11% from 1,048,000 in H1 2025. It names the February closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and Commission language that electricity tax should be no higher than gas tax, as the likely drivers. pv magazine puts those 12 countries at about 80% of the European market
  2. Atlas Copco (2 Oct) closed the purchase of Guangdong Euroklimat, a Chinese maker of industrial heating and cooling equipment. The price is not disclosed. 2025 revenue was RMB 1,281 million (about SEK 1.8 billion) with about 1,000 employees. The company joins the Oil-free Air division. Plants are in Guangdong and Tianjin
  3. Axen, of Guangzhou, and French boiler maker Perge have commissioned an R290 monobloc line at Portes-lès-Valence (reported 29 Sep): air-to-water, 4–16 kW, single- and three-phase. Line capacity is not stated. The joint venture, Perge Axen Co, was formed at the end of April
  4. Vertiv (28 Sep) will add about 22,000 m² at Nové Mesto nad Váhom, Slovakia, over 18–24 months, including liquid cooling for high-density AI and high-performance computing. Cooling Post describes the existing plant as 56,000 m². Slovak reporting expects hundreds of jobs in 2027–2029
  5. California’s 30 Sep window to sign or veto SB 222 has closed. That day’s gubernatorial list does not name the bill, and the legislature status page checked on 4 Oct still shows only the 30 Aug enrollment. Under the California Constitution, a bill in that position that is not returned becomes a statute. No chapter number is posted yet. China’s quota filing date is still 31 Oct; no new Chinese product standard took effect this week
Policy

Policy & Regulation

  • The permit clock that weeks 36–39 left on the Governor’s desk has run out, and the official pages do not yet agree on a label. Governor Newsom’s 30 Sep legislative update lists the bills signed and vetoed that day; SB 222 is on neither list. The legislature status page, checked 4 Oct, still says “enrolled”, last action 30 Aug (“presented to the Governor”), house location “Governor”. Article IV, section 10(b)(2) of the California Constitution provides that a bill passed before 1 September and in the Governor’s possession on or after that date becomes a statute if it is not returned by 30 September. On that text, the veto window closed without a published veto. A chapter number is not on the status page, so read the enrolled bill, not a rewritten city fee sheet. The enrolled text is non-urgent and does not cover new residential construction. From 1 July 2027, cities and counties must offer asynchronous inspection of residential heat-pump water heaters and heat-pump HVAC. Permit fees are capped at $150 for a heat-pump water heater and $200 for heat-pump HVAC, with an exemption for very small jurisdictions and a written-findings route to a higher fee. Qualifying 120 V plug-in window units need no permit. Online real-time permits for defined swap-outs are due by 1 July 2028. The default start for a non-urgency statute is 1 January 2027.
  • China’s compliance shelf did not move. The 31 October deadline for 2027 ODS and HFC quota and initial-transfer applications is unchanged, and the draft freeze of HFC production and use totals at 2026 levels stays provisional until a final notice. MEE announcement 2026 No. 42 still bans production of HCFC-22 multi-split air-conditioning (heat pump) units from 1 January 2027, with product scope tied to the annex and to GB/T 18837-2026, effective 1 November. JB/T 15555-2026 remains in force from 1 September. A scan of late-September and early-October national announcements did not turn up a new refrigeration or heat-pump product standard taking effect this week. In Japan, no new JIS heat-pump requirement was found taking effect this week; JIS B 8615-1:2025 (issued 21 April 2025) is the standing test method for non-ducted air conditioners and heat pumps, and an English edition circulated in September does not create a new duty. On price, the open East China tape for 28 Sep–4 Oct was not in the notes located this week. The fresh quote is a single plant: on 29 Sep, Dongyang in Ruyuan, Guangdong, held R32 at ¥66,000/t and R134a at ¥70,000/t, both unchanged on the day. That is not an East China market band. The last readable East China band remains week 39’s ¥63,500–65,500/t.
Markets

Market & Industry

  • The EHPA print is a residential unit count across 12 countries, and it should sit beside—not be averaged with—the UK series from weeks 37 and 39 or this week’s Norwegian installation forecast. The 12 are Austria, Belgium, Switzerland, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal and Sweden. EHPA’s own note (28 Sep) attributes the 11% rise to oil and gas prices after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz in February, and to Commission plans encouraging governments to cut electricity tax. Director general Paul Kenny pointed to the Netherlands and Belgium as the governments that have already shifted taxes off electricity. The Commission’s Electrification Action Plan, as EHPA restates it, says tax on electricity should be no higher than tax on gas, and proposes revising network charges so flexible loads such as heat pumps are rewarded. EHPA adds that electricity taxes are still frequently higher than gas taxes. pv magazine (same day) says the 12 countries are about 80% of the European market; that share is the magazine’s framing, not a figure in the EHPA note. Set the 1.16 million units next to week 37’s MCS retrofit count for existing UK homes (20,895 in H1, −22%, about 99% air-to-water) and week 39’s fixed-split stock (about 0.24% of UK homes). One is manufacturer sales in 12 countries. One is certified fossil replacements. One is an installed base of fixed air conditioning. The UK fiscal question from week 38—whether the 28 Oct Autumn Budget moves levies off electricity—is now the British version of the sentence EHPA addressed to every EU government.
  • Norway is inside the EHPA 12, and it also published a different series this week. VKE’s second-half 2026 market report (29 Sep) covers installation and maintenance of ventilation and of cooling and heat-pump plant, including controls and products, in kroner rather than residential units. That climate market fell 6.3% in 2023 and 13.1% in 2024, then levelled off in 2025 at NOK 13.6 billion. VKE forecasts +8.6% in 2026, driven largely by large hospital projects in Oslo, and a level 7.5% above 2025 by the end of 2028. Work in existing commercial buildings is 41% of the climate market and is forecast at +3.2% this year, +4.2% in 2027 and +3.4% in 2028. Data centres are named as upside, with the pace limited by access to power and grid capacity. A policy rate of 4.5%, plus higher energy prices after the Hormuz closure, is described as still holding construction below 2022. Do not add the 8.6% to the EHPA 11%.
Tech

Technology & Demonstrations

  • This week’s hardware news is an address and a boundary, not a seasonal rating. The Axen–Perge line (Cooling Post, 29 Sep) assembles R290 monobloc air-to-water heat pumps from 4 kW to 16 kW in single- and three-phase versions at Perge’s existing factory in Portes-lès-Valence, south of Lyon. GZ Axen Heat Pump Technology was founded in Guangzhou in 2006; Perge is a family-owned French heating firm, founded in 1971, whose catalogue has been biomass, oil and hybrid boilers. The joint venture was created at the end of April. No annual capacity, SCOP or flow temperature is in the report. A Chinese design assembled in France is still an A3 install: the missing number is the line rate, and the number a specifier still has to bring is the charge, the zone and the clearances.
  • Two other footprints belong in different files. Vertiv’s 28 Sep release adds manufacturing floor for power, switchgear and thermal management, including liquid cooling for high-density AI, on an 18–24 month build. It is a data-centre cooling capacity story. It does not publish a heat-pump COP, a refrigerant or a process-temperature lift. Atlas Copco’s 2 Oct closing release gives revenue, headcount and the division—Oil-free Air, inside Compressor Technique—and describes process cooling and energy conversion. It does not repeat a product list. The chillers, industrial heat pumps, central air-handling units and dry coolers were named when the deal was first announced in July, as Cooling Post restates them this week. Treat that list as the July scope, and the RMB 1,281 million as the 2025 sales figure, until a current catalogue is attached to the acquired plants.
  • The component item is a Chillventa package, and the skills item is a propane leak. Sanhua (reported 3 Oct) will show a standardised CO₂ condensing-unit kit that integrates line components, sensors, electronic expansion valves, compressor drives and controls, and leaves out the compressor and the fans. The controller, developed with Reftronix, is described for single- and dual-stage compressors, with EEV backup power, RS485, wi-fi, Ethernet, cloud access and phone monitoring. No system COP is stated. Separately, Ideal Commercial Heating (28 Sep) launched a one-hour CIBSE-approved CPD on commercial R290 air-source heat pumps: A3, DSEAR, ATEX and EN 378, hazardous-area classification, and the point that propane is denser than air and can collect in drains, pits and other low points. That is an installer constraint sitting next to the French assembly line, not a catalogue efficiency. No new Chinese product standard took effect this week.
Analysis

Why It Matters

  • Do not average the counts. H1 residential sales rose 11% across 12 countries. UK certified retrofits in existing homes fell 22% in the same half-year. Fixed splits sit in about 0.24% of UK homes. Norway’s climate-installation market, in kroner and including ventilation, is forecast +8.6% for the full year after two down years. Each series answers a different question. The shared policy sentence is the electricity-to-gas tax. EHPA has now said it to EU governments; the UK industry said it to the Autumn Budget in week 38. A sales rebound does not by itself put air-to-air inside the Boiler Upgrade Scheme.
  • Follow the factory address before the brochure. A Guangzhou design on a French boiler-maker’s floor is an R290 monobloc of 4–16 kW with no published line rate or SCOP. Slovakia’s extra 22,000 m² is liquid cooling for compute, not a dwelling heat pump. Guangdong Euroklimat’s RMB 1,281 million is a 2025 sales figure under a new owner; the industrial-heat-pump line was in the July announcement, not a tested duty in the closing release. China’s refrigerant signal is still a high, thin tape—one Guangdong plant at ¥66,000/t—under an unchanged 31 Oct filing date.
  • For project owners, the clocks split. Chillventa is 13–15 Oct, nine days out, and Sanhua’s CO₂ kit is a stand item, not a commissioned plant. The UK budget is 28 Oct. China’s 2027 quota filing is 31 Oct. GB/T 18837-2026 is 1 Nov. SB 222’s own dates, if the constitutional reading holds and a chapter follows, are 1 Jan 2027 for the statute, 1 Jul 2027 for asynchronous inspection, and 1 Jul 2028 for automated swap-out permits—with the $150 / $200 caps subject to the small-jurisdiction exemption and a written override. 1 Jan 2027 is still the shared date for the EU self-contained GWP<150 limits and China’s ban on producing HCFC-22 multi-split units.
  • Apply the signal: the week’s lever is a tariff comparison, not a nameplate. EHPA’s 11% is explained by gas prices and by electricity tax, which is a boundary condition. The industrial heat-pump viability note sets out why a sales print, or a factory under a new owner, still has to pass temperature lift, operating overlap and the incumbent energy price before it becomes a project.
Calendar

Events Calendar

  • 30 Sep 2026: California sign-or-veto window for SB 222 closed; no veto on the Governor’s list that day; chapter number not yet on the legislature status page (checked 4 Oct). 13–15 Oct: Chillventa, Nuremberg (nine days). 28 Oct: UK Autumn Budget. 31 Oct: China 2027 ODS/HFC quota and initial-transfer applications. 1 Nov: GB/T 18837-2026 for multi-split air-conditioning (heat pump) units takes effect.
  • 1 Jan 2027: default start for a non-urgency California statute, which is the constitutional position of SB 222 absent a return; EU GWP<150 limits begin for defined self-contained AC/heat-pump categories up to 50 kW, subject to safety exceptions; China bans production of HCFC-22 multi-split air-conditioning (heat pump) units. 1 Jul 2027: SB 222 asynchronous-inspection duty, if chaptered as enrolled. H1 2027: SLB targets close of the Kelvion acquisition (week 36). 1 Jul 2028: SB 222 online real-time permits for defined residential swap-outs. 30 Apr / 31 Aug 2027: planned China in-year HFC quota-adjustment windows under the 2027 drafts.
Sources

Primary Sources