Top Stories

  1. Trane (25 Sep) introduced the 20 TruComfort variable-speed cold-climate air-source heat pump on R-454B, in 3 / 4 / 5 ton sizes, with an outdoor range of −29°C to 46°C. Laboratory data for the 3-ton unit claim 107% of rated heating at −15°C and 85% at −29°C; COP, HSPF2 and SEER2 are not published
  2. Carrier (23 Sep) launched the WeatherFlex 50FC reversible rooftop heat pump on R-454C (GWP 146 in the EU F-gas annex): heating 22–50 kW, cooling 23–49 kW, outdoor −18°C to 50°C. It is aimed at the EU 1 Jan 2027 GWP<150 placement limit for self-contained equipment above 12 kW up to 50 kW. The announcement gives no SCOP or SEER
  3. DESNZ published (24 Sep) the UK Space Cooling Market Landscape Update, from interviews in Nov 2024–Feb 2025 and mostly 2024 data. About 64,000 homes have a fixed single-split and 7,000 a multi-split—together about 0.24% of UK homes—while air-to-air heat pumps remain outside the Boiler Upgrade Scheme
  4. HKUST researchers, reported 21 Sep, claim an elastocaloric cooler that holds 400 W and a 41 K temperature span over 1 million cycles without degradation. The TiNiCuCo refrigerant is said to exceed 10 million compressive cycles, with no functional degradation after 100 million accelerated cycles. It is a laboratory device; the team says an air conditioner is in development
  5. East China R32 on 22–23 Sep was unchanged from the week-38 band: mainstream plants about ¥65,500/t, market quotes ¥63,500–64,500/t, with the industry operating rate near 40%. California SB 222 is still on the Governor’s desk, with a sign-or-veto deadline of 30 Sep. No new Chinese product standard took effect this week
Policy

Policy & Regulation

  • China’s compliance shelf did not move this week. The 31 October deadline for 2027 ODS and HFC quota and initial-transfer applications is unchanged, and the 2027 draft freeze of HFC production and use totals at 2026 levels stays provisional until a final notice. MEE announcement 2026 No. 42 still bans production of HCFC-22 multi-split air-conditioning (heat pump) units from 1 January 2027, with product scope tied to the annex and to GB/T 18837-2026, which takes effect on 1 November. JB/T 15555-2026 remains in force from 1 September. A scan of late-September national announcements did not turn up a new refrigeration or heat-pump product standard. On price, ChemPriceHub’s 22–23 Sep print kept East China R32 flat: mainstream plants quoted about ¥65,500/t on coordinated China and export offers, the market band was ¥63,500–64,500/t, and the industry operating rate was near 40% under volume control. That is the same freeze-plus-tight-spot colour as week 38, not a new cut.
  • In the English-speaking jurisdictions, the new document is British and the hard clock is still Californian. DESNZ published the UK Space Cooling Market Landscape Update on 24 Sep. The report, drawn from interviews between November 2024 and February 2025, lists air-to-air heat pumps as not fully recognised: MCS standards and tools were being updated at the time of drafting, and the Boiler Upgrade Scheme does not include air-to-air. A consultation on adding air-to-air to BUS had already closed when the report was drafted. The same barrier list names uncertainty over a GB F-gas update and over PFAS, comfort cooling that building regulations do not fully credit, too few F-gas-accredited installers, and install-and-run cost. The report also restates the GB/NI rule that single-split systems with less than 3 kg of refrigerant need a GWP below 750 from 2025—a looser shelf than the EU’s 1 January 2027 GWP<150 limit for defined self-contained air-conditioning and heat pumps up to 50 kW, which the Commission’s alternatives page still shows, including the band above 12 kW and up to 50 kW, with a safety exception to GWP 750. California SB 222 remains enrolled and at the Governor; the last recorded action is still presentation on 30 Aug, and the sign-or-veto deadline is 30 Sep.
Markets

Market & Industry

  • The DESNZ landscape is an installed-base count of fixed air conditioning, and it should sit beside—not be averaged with—week 37’s MCS retrofit tally or week 38’s AHRI July factory shipments. For 2024, the report estimates residential sales of about 9,000 single-splits, 1,000 multi-splits and 2,000 VRF condensing units, and an installed base of about 64,000 single-splits, 7,000 multi-splits and 15,000 VRF units. Counting one split per home, that is about 0.24% of UK homes; the authors flag the one-unit-per-home assumption as a simplification. Separately, about 2–3% of homes are estimated to have some cooling, mostly portable units, which are outside the study; stakeholders put portable sales near 50,000 a year. Non-residential 2024 sales are estimated at about 175,000 single-splits, 19,000 multi-splits, 18,000 VRF and 2,500 chillers, against an installed base of about 2.6 million single-splits, 143,000 multi-splits, 306,000 VRF and 48,000 chillers. Hydronic heat pumps are named and then excluded from the stock tables. The policy point that follows is the one week 38 already framed as a fiscal ask: if air-to-air stays outside BUS while electricity remains the expensive fuel, the reversible split will stay a specification outlier next to the water-based retrofit channel.
  • On the European project side, Cooling Post (23 Sep) reported a commissioned cogeneration upgrade at Sauze d’Oulx in Piedmont. Meco Sauze, with Ecotermica Servizi, fitted one Trane XStream RTWF 125 HE heat pump to each of three cogeneration engines of 1,334 kW electrical. The units are said to lift intercooler heat from about 30°C to about 80°C for the district-heating network, and they can run on electricity generated on site. The project is described as fully commissioned, with a return on investment expected in less than two years. Treat the temperatures and the payback as project claims until the heat-pump boundary, the share of heat actually recovered, and the tariff are on the measurement sheet.
Tech

Technology & Demonstrations

  • Trane’s 20 TruComfort is a heating-weighted residential package, and the capacity-retention figures are not one number for every size. pv magazine (25 Sep) reports nominal ratings of 26,200 Btu/h cooling and 33,200 Btu/h heating on the 3-ton unit, 36,000 / 45,000 on the 4-ton, and two 5-ton variants at 48,500 / 55,000 and 48,000 / 55,500. Laboratory heating retention versus rated capacity is 107% / 85% at −15°C / −29°C for the 3-ton, 100% / 67% for the 4-ton, 87% / 53% for one 5-ton and 100% / 70% for the other. Trane has not published COP, HSPF2 or SEER2. The product is tied to the US Department of Energy Residential Cold Climate Heat Pump Challenge: an early prototype was tested at Oak Ridge National Laboratory in 2022, and nine field units in Minnesota, Montana, New York, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Texas accumulated more than 36,900 hours, including more than 18,300 in heating. In a January 2026 cold spell, Trane says one 5-ton unit in La Crosse, Wisconsin, held setpoint without supplemental heat down to −29°C; another held setpoint without backup to about −23°C, then used supplemental heat while the heat pump kept running. Configurations are an all-electric air handler or dual fuel with a furnace. Until a rating standard and the exact size are on the submittal, keep the 85% figure attached to the 3-ton laboratory case.
  • Carrier’s WeatherFlex 50FC is the commercial rooftop answer to the same 1 January 2027 self-contained shelf, in the capacity band the EU page sets above 12 kW and up to 50 kW. The unit is air-to-air, uses variable-speed scroll compressors, and is offered for new build and retrofit with free cooling, heat recovery and variable ventilation. R-454C is listed on the Commission alternatives page at GWP 146 (GWP20 580, safety group A2L), which sits under the GWP 150 limit and above the safety-exception ceiling only if a site cannot use anything below 150. Carrier already sells a 50FC range on R-454B (GWP 465 on the same page) at about 22–90 kW, with published SEER 4.49–5.07 and SCOP about 3.45–3.80. Those seasonal figures were not repeated for the new R-454C series. Specify the refrigerant, the GWP band and the missing seasonal rating as three separate lines.
  • Two smaller items belong in the screening file rather than a bill of quantities. Cooling Post (21 Sep) reports the HKUST elastocaloric device—TiNiCuCo, a double-layer fin refrigerant, a claimed 50% cut in component count and a drop in ineffective mass from 15% to 5%—holding 400 W and 41 K across 1 million cycles. Accelerated tests are said to show no functional degradation after 100 million cycles, and the team expects more than a decade in real cooling duty while it develops an air conditioner. That is a materials-and-device result, not a catalogue COP. Separately, Danfoss (22 Sep) introduced the AK-GC52 controller for gas-cooler and receiver pressure in transcritical and subcritical CO₂ systems, including heat pumps and heat recovery, paired with ICMTS valves and ICAD actuators. No system COP is stated. No new Chinese product standard took effect this week; JB/T 15555-2026 is already in force, and GB/T 18837-2026 is still the 1 November event.
Analysis

Why It Matters

  • For UK specification: the new stock count and the week-37 retrofit count describe different machines. Fixed single-splits and multi-splits sit in about 0.24% of homes; MCS-certified hydronic retrofits were the series that fell 22% in H1. Air-to-air is the technology the DESNZ barrier list says BUS omits, while MCS was still writing it into its standards during the interview window. The Autumn Budget question from week 38—whether levies move off electricity—now sits next to a second question: whether air-to-air is recognised as a heating product at all before reversible splits are asked to carry summer comfort.
  • For refrigerant strategy: China’s signal is still a flat price under the freeze, with the operating rate near 40%. The low-GWP product news this week is A2L, split by market. Trane’s northern-US residential unit is R-454B (GWP 465). Carrier’s European rooftop is R-454C (GWP 146), sized for the self-contained band that hits GWP<150 on 1 January 2027. The elastocaloric result does not substitute for either refrigerant choice on a 2027 tender.
  • For project owners: three days to the SB 222 deadline (30 Sep), a little over two weeks to Chillventa (13–15 Oct), then 1 November for GB/T 18837-2026, 31 October for China’s 2027 quota filing, and 1 January 2027 for both the EU self-contained GWP<150 limits and China’s HCFC-22 multi-split production ban. Treat Trane’s capacity-retention table, Carrier’s unpublished seasonal rating, the Sauze d’Oulx 30°C-to-80°C lift, and the HKUST 400 W / 41 K result as screening inputs. Require the size, the test standard, the refrigerant and the measurement boundary before any of them enters a financial model.
  • Apply the signal: the week’s headline performance is heating capacity held at −29°C, without a published COP or HSPF2. A brochure retention rate still needs the test boundary. The extreme-testing note sets out why a claimed temperature point is not yet a verified duty.
Calendar

Events Calendar

  • 24 Sep 2026: IOR Industry Skills Alliance, London (passed; no public decision note by 27 Sep). 30 Sep: California Governor’s deadline to sign or veto SB 222 (three days). 13–15 Oct: Chillventa, Nuremberg (a little over two weeks). 28 Oct: UK Autumn Budget. 31 Oct: China 2027 ODS/HFC quota and initial-transfer applications. 1 Nov: GB/T 18837-2026 for multi-split air-conditioning (heat pump) units takes effect.
  • 1 Jan 2027: EU GWP<150 limits begin for defined self-contained AC/heat-pump categories up to 50 kW, including the band above 12 kW, subject to safety exceptions; China bans production of HCFC-22 multi-split air-conditioning (heat pump) units. H1 2027: SLB targets close of the Kelvion acquisition (week 36). 30 Apr / 31 Aug 2027: planned China in-year HFC quota-adjustment windows under the 2027 drafts.
Sources

Primary Sources