Decision: screen the heat source, process demand, operating overlap and incumbent energy together. A good nameplate COP cannot rescue a project with little simultaneous demand or the wrong tariff boundary.

The short answer

Advance an industrial heat-pump project only when all four of these hold:

  • A recoverable source is available when heat is needed.
  • The required temperature lift stays inside a credible equipment envelope.
  • Seasonal performance lowers the cost of delivered heat.
  • The saving still matters after auxiliaries, downtime, maintenance and integration cost.

The first screen should return advance, advance with conditions, or pause and measure—not a procurement-grade equipment selection.

Six inputs that decide the result

  1. Source boundary: entering and minimum leaving temperature, available flow or recoverable duty, and its hourly/seasonal profile.
  2. Demand boundary: process supply and return temperature, required duty, hygiene or product constraints, and its operating profile.
  3. Operating overlap: hours when recoverable heat and useful demand exist at the same time.
  4. Incumbent heat: boiler efficiency, steam price, fuel price, demand charges and current O&M.
  5. Heat-pump electricity: tariff by time period, auxiliaries and any refrigeration-side power penalty.
  6. Integration: heat exchangers, buffer storage, piping, water treatment, shutdown windows and space.

Make the data reusable: record the time period, unit, measurement point, operating condition and source for each value. Mark whether it is measured, taken from a bill or drawing, or assumed. Leave unknown values blank and name the next measurement needed; do not treat a case-study value as your site measurement.

A transparent screening calculation

Use the site boundary—not a brochure point:

  • Annual useful heat: Qyear = useful heat duty × simultaneous operating hours.
  • Heat-pump electricity: EHP = Qyear ÷ seasonal performance factor.
  • Heat-pump energy cost: CHP = EHP × electricity tariff, plus incremental O&M and only the auxiliary electricity not already included in the seasonal performance boundary.
  • Incumbent fuel input: Ebase = Qyear ÷ delivered-heat efficiency.
  • Annual saving: annual incumbent cost minus annual heat-pump cost for the same useful heat. Equivalently, multiply the unit-cost difference by annual useful heat.
  • Simple payback: installed project cost ÷ positive annual saving; zero or negative savings do not yield a finite positive payback. Use discounted cash flow before an investment decision.

Temperature lift should ultimately be checked between refrigerant evaporation and condensation levels, including heat-exchanger approaches. Process water temperatures alone are not the compressor lift.

Illustrative example: why overlap and tariffs matter

Illustrative values only—not a customer result. A process needs 1 MW of useful heat for 4,000 simultaneous hours, or 4,000 MWh/year. At an assumed seasonal performance factor of 3.2, the heat pump uses about 1,250 MWh/year. At CNY 0.70/kWh, electricity costs about CNY 875,000/year.

If the incumbent gas input costs CNY 0.32/kWh and delivers heat at 90% efficiency, supplying the same useful heat requires about 4,444 MWh of gas input, or CNY 1.422 million/year. The gross energy-cost difference is therefore about CNY 547,000/year before auxiliaries, maintenance, demand charges and downtime. An installed cost of CNY 3.0 million would imply a simple payback of roughly 5.5 years before those corrections.

Halving simultaneous hours roughly halves annual energy saving while installed integration cost may barely move. That is why annual overlap often matters more than a small improvement in rated COP.

When the correct answer is pause

  • Source and demand profiles have not been measured, or rarely overlap.
  • The project relies on raising refrigeration condensing pressure without counting added compressor power.
  • COP comes from a single rated point outside the real source/sink envelope.
  • The comparison mixes fuel input price, delivered steam price and useful-heat output.
  • Fouling, water quality, product hygiene, pressure equipment or refrigerant safety is unresolved.
  • Payback depends on an undisclosed subsidy or on uninterrupted full-load operation.

Turn the guide into a project screen

Start with the values you already know. The tool will keep assumptions visible and list missing data instead of fabricating them.

Screen an industrial heat-pump project → · Review field and public-source cases →

Engineering boundary

This is an early decision framework, not equipment selection, safety review, detailed design, a performance guarantee or financial advice. Verify manufacturer envelopes, applicable standards, tariffs and site measurements with qualified engineers before procurement.

Evidence and how to use this guide

This is an editorial engineering decision guide, not a measured project outcome. Calculated examples and assumptions are identified in the text. Field references retain their own evidence labels; plant-reported results are not independently verified savings.

For the site evidence, read anonymous plant A and plant B. Use the standards directory to reach primary publications, and confirm their applicability with the responsible engineer. See our editorial and source principles.